C’è qualcosa che non va?!?

E’ da un ora che non mi riesco a spiegarmi come possa essere possibile?

Come è possibile che i Nonperforming assest (attivi bancari come mutui o prestiti che sono già incorsi in ritardi e dunque potenzialmente inesigibili) relativi ai sola categoria consumer (cioè della normale clientela privata) continuino a crescere e le relative svalutazioni di tali attivi diminuiscono?

Una spiegazione potrebbe essere sicuramente che le svalutazioni devono essere tra loro sommate trimestre dopo trimestre e rappresenterebbero allora una situazione ben diversa. Ma resta in tal caso evidente come dal secondo trimestre le svalutazioni hanno cominciato a ridursi a ritmi molto veloci. Ma saranno veramente rose?

Grafici che fanno pensare

Da trimestrale JP Morgan, 4Q 2009:

Prime mortgage net charge-offs were $568 million (3.81% net charge-off rate1), compared with $195 million (1.20% net charge-off rate1) in the prior year.

[…]

The managed provision for credit losses was $8.9 billion, up by $360 million, or 4%, from the prior year. The resulting firmwide allowance for loan losses to end-of-period loans retained1 was 5.51%, compared with 3.62% in the prior year. The total consumer-managed provision for credit losses was $8.5 billion, compared with $7.4 billion in the prior year, reflecting higher net charge-offs across most consumer portfolios, partially offset by a lower addition to the allowance for credit losses primarily relating to Card Services. Consumer-managed net charge-offs were $6.6 billion, compared with $4.3 billion in the prior year, resulting in managed net charge-off rates1 of 6.05% and 3.62%, respectively. The wholesale provision for credit losses was $421 million, compared with $1.1 billion in the prior year, reflecting releases in the allowance for loan losses in the current quarter due to loan sales and repayments offset by higher charge-offs. Wholesale net charge-offs were $1.2 billion, compared with net charge-offs of $217 million in the prior year, resulting in net charge-off rates of 2.31% and 0.33%, respectively, reflecting continued weakening in the credit environment. The firm’s nonperforming assets totaled $19.7 billion at December 31, 2009, up from the prior-year level of $12.7 billion.

Allora è proprio vero: le svalutazioni non sono ancora finite!